Forecasting Weather and Climate in the midst of Chaos and Unpredictability

Speaker: Tim Palmer
Professorial Fellow, Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, Jesus College, Oxford

Probabilistic ensemble forecasting enhances the accuracy, reliability, and usability of weather and climate predictions, offering a more comprehensive understanding of potential conditions, thereby improving planning, risk management, and decision-making.
Tim Palmer was one of the driving forces behind the development and widespread use of ensemble forecasting techniques at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). He recognised that the atmosphere is inherently chaotic and small errors in initial conditions could lead to large differences in forecast outcomes.
Probabilistic ensemble forecasting provides several key benefits over traditional deterministic forecasting methods and that is mainly due to the stochastic components Tim introduced.
Come and learn how this groundbreaking change has made such massive improvements in our weather and climate forecasting.
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